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Girls who became pregnant experienced an almost fourfold increase in the risk of dropping out of school. Impact of Sex, Pregnancy, and Marriage on Schooling Among studies examining whether early transitions into sexual activity, pregnancy, or Sex dating Kisumu impede prospects of school completion for both boys and girls, few have addressed the issue of dating per se. Piecewise constant exponential models are a Sex dating Kisumu of the standard exponential model in which the time axis is split into discrete periods Blossfeld, Golsch, and Rohwer

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Another advantage is that because we do not Sex dating Kisumu the shape of the underlying hazard function for either school dropout or sexual debut, we Sex dating Kisumu incorporate a flexible hazard function that changes over specific time periods. Because we analyze the outcomes for men and women separately, we create separate piecewise exponential models that best Sex dating Kisumu their specific survival functions.

For our analyses, ties are especially problematic if the respondent reports having had his or her first sexual experience and completed or dropped out of secondary school in the same month. One of the main advantages of having monthly rather than yearly measures of these events is that it dramatically reduces the number of such ties.

In our sample, only 2 percent of respondents report having had sex for the first time and leaving school in the same month, although nearly one-third 31 percent of all transitions out of school occur within a year of sexual debut. These results demonstrate that many transitions to adulthood occur in rapid succession, rendering annual measures of these events inadequate to capture the temporal order.

Nonetheless, although monthly measures result in fewer ties, respondents may have Sex dating Kisumu remembering events with precision. In the analyses presented below, all of our independent variables are lagged by one month to handle ties and to ensure that changes in independent variables occur before the status of the dependent variable changes.

Overall, Sex dating Kisumu find few differences in these lagged models, although we highlight the one potentially important difference in our discussion of the results below.

To further explore whether recall bias may be affecting our results, we include controls for the age of the respondent at the time of the interview in all of our models.

Older respondents, however, had to remember events in the more distant past. On average, respondents reported having their first sexual encounter five years before the survey and leaving school three years before the survey. The maximum recall period was 14 years for sexual debut and 9 years for leaving school.

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Our first set of survival-analysis models examines covariates associated with a higher risk of dropping out before completing secondary Sex dating Kisumu.

Men and women are considered to have dropped out if they are Sex dating Kisumu longer enrolled in school and did not complete at least nine months of Form Sex dating Kisumu. Because of high rates of grade repetition and temporary absences from school, however, students often take longer to complete secondary school. One respondent in our sample, for example, finished Form 4 at the age of Students who are still enrolled in school or who have completed at least nine months of Form 4 are treated as censored.

Thus, in our schooling analyses, respondents are observed until they complete secondary school or drop out of school. If they are currently enrolled, they are last observed at the time of the survey. In all Sex dating Kisumu models, we control for time-constant and time-varying socioeconomic characteristics, which are correlated with educational attainment.

We also account for whether, and if so when, the respondent has become a maternal, paternal, or double orphan. Unfortunately, our study like most studies lacks a Sex dating Kisumu measure of household wealth. We follow the example of other studies that have attempted to mitigate this problem by using current measures of Sex dating Kisumu assets Mensch et al.

Nonetheless, this measure of wealth should be interpreted with caution because it may reflect the effect of schooling on wealth rather than the effect of wealth on schooling. The inclusion of measures of current wealth slightly diminishes the magnitude of the effect of sexual partners and pregnancy for both men and women. We are especially interested in Sex dating Kisumu dating of both romantic and sexual partners, pregnancy, and marital aspirations are associated with the risk of dropping out of school.

Thus, we include a measure for dating total number of both romantic and sexual partners in Model 2. In Model 3, to further explore whether sexual partners pose a greater threat to educational achievement than nonsexual partners, we restrict our measure to sexual partners only. In our final model Model 4we assess whether the risk posed by having sexual partners can be partly or entirely Sex dating Kisumu by an increased risk of pregnancy and the development of marital aspirations.

Hence, we include a time-varying measure for ever being pregnant for women or ever impregnating a partner for men. In our second set of survival analysis models, we explore the effects of school Sex dating Kisumu and school performance on sexual debut.

Men and women who have not had sex by the time of the survey are treated as censored. Additionally, because we are interested in the predictors of premarital sex, we treat marriage as a disrupting event and censor the 13 respondents 11 women and 2 Sex dating Kisumu who had sex for the first time in the same month as their marriage.

Thus, for these analyses, the end of observation refers to the age of sexual debut if the respondent is sexually active, or the age at the time of the survey if the respondent never had sex.

We control Sex dating Kisumu all the same socioeconomic characteristics included in our analysis for dropping out of school in Model 1. The same caveats regarding our measures of household Sex dating Kisumu also apply to these analyses. In Model 2, we add a time-varying measure of educational attainment, which incorporates an indicator of prior school performance.

Specifically, we create a categorical variable that equals 1 if the respondent has dropped out of school prior to finishing secondary school, 2 Sex dating Kisumu the respondent is no longer in school but completed secondary school, 3 if the respondent is enrolled in school but behind, and 4 if the respondent is in school and on track. Table 1 provides a full description of both the time-constant and time-varying variables used in our models.

This table also shows the tremendous changes in the lives of adolescents between the age of 14 and the time when they either dropped out of school or completed secondary education. Among respondents who were in school at age 14, 46 percent of Sex dating Kisumu had dropped out of school, 52 percent had completed secondary school, and only 3 percent were still in school at the end of the observation period.

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Among men, 34 percent had dropped out, 55 percent had completed secondary school, and 11 percent were still enrolled. Other important events also occurred.

By the end of the observation period, more than a quarter of the respondents had migrated and 3 percent of women and 10 percent of men had begun earning an income while still in school. At the age of 14, 23 percent of women and 21 percent of men had experienced the death of at least one parent, and at the end of the observation period this figure Sex dating Kisumu to about 35 percent for both men and women. Percentage of women and men surveyed, by schooling outcome, sociodemographic characteristics, and dating and sexual Sex dating Kisumu, at age 14 and at end of observation period, Kisumu, Kenya, Our respondents also experienced a sharp increase in number of romantic and sexual partners during this time period.

About 78 percent of women Sex dating Kisumu 66 percent of men reported no sexual or romantic partners by the age of This number fell to 28 percent of women and only 15 percent of men by the end of the observation period. About 13 percent of girls reported ever becoming pregnant Sex dating Kisumu in school, compared with 6 percent of men who reported that their partner became pregnant. Concurrent with the Sex dating Kisumu in romantic and sexual partnerships, both young men and women started thinking about marriage during this time period.

Whereas only about 5 percent of year-olds reported having found a partner whom they would like to marry at least somedaythis figure rose to 33 percent by the end of their schooling among women, and 38 percent among men. The results from our multivariate survival analyses of school dropout for women and men are presented in Table 2. Although we are primarily interested in the effects of dating and sexual behaviors on secondary school completion, we note that several sociodemographic characteristics were strongly associated with whether girls dropped out of school.

Muslim girls and, to a lesser extent, girls who follow traditional African religions were less likely to finish secondary school than were either Catholics or Protestants. Higher levels of poverty at the time of the survey were associated Sex dating Kisumu a significantly greater risk of dropping out of school. Additionally, girls who were orphaned, regardless of the type of orphanhood maternal, paternal, or doublewere significantly more likely to drop out Sex dating Kisumu school.

We also find that girls who had found a job and had Sex dating Kisumu to earn income during secondary school were significantly more likely to drop out of school. Girls who had moved to Kisumu appear to have an advantage with respect to schooling, perhaps indicating that some girls move to Kisumu to take advantage of the larger number of secondary schools, although this effect was only significant in Model 4.

Sex dating Kisumu, the age of the respondent at the time of the survey had no significant effect on the reported age of last school enrollment, and no Sex dating Kisumu trend existed in the relationship between current age and likelihood of school dropout, suggesting little evidence of systematic recall bias with respect to age.

Moreover, the inclusion of measures of age at Sex dating Kisumu time of the survey had no appreciable effect on any of the coefficients in any models, further indicating that age is not an important mediating factor in the reporting of retrospective events. Piecewise Sex dating Kisumu survival analyses of hazard ratios of dropping out of school, Kisumu, Kenya, Young women who Sex dating Kisumu three or more partners had more than three times the risk of dropping out of school, compared with women who had never dated.

In Model 3 we assess the effects of sexual partners only. We find that the relationship between dropping out of school and total number of sexual partnerships was much stronger than the relationship with all partners, suggesting that sexual partners rather Sex dating Kisumu romantic partners place adolescents at risk of dropping out of school. The hazard ratio Sex dating Kisumu a young woman who had three or more sexual partners was almost eight times that of a young woman who never had a sexual partner.

After including indicators for ever being pregnant and ever wanting to marry a partner, the magnitude of the coefficients for number of sexual partners was greatly diminished, although the difference between having no sexual partners and having three or more partners remained significant.

Girls who became pregnant experienced an almost fourfold increase in the risk of dropping out of school. When we lag measures of sexual partnerships, ever being pregnant, and marital aspirations by six months, however, we find that the effects of the number of sexual partners Sex dating Kisumu noticeably stronger, while the effect of wanting to get married decreases from a hazard ratio of 1. These results may indicate either the potential bias if these dates are misreported or that girls genuinely leave school very shortly after finding a partner to marry.

For young men, as for young women, we find no significant relationship between age at the time of the survey and Sex dating Kisumu schooling outcomes Table 2.

In contrast to our findings for women, we find that migration among men was negatively associated with educational attainment, particularly in Model 4.

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In all our models, Sex dating Kisumu who started to earn income while in school were at greater risk of dropping out of school, as were young men affiliated with traditional African religions. Models 3 and 4 show striking gender differences with respect to dating Sex dating Kisumu sexual Sex dating Kisumu.

Indeed, the magnitude of this effect for men was almost as large as the effect of pregnancy among women. The effect of marital aspirations, however, had the opposite effect for men than for women. Men who had found a partner whom they wished to marry were less likely to drop out of school, although this effect was not significant.

Our models that include six-month lags see Appendix Table Sex dating Kisumu differ very little from the models presented in Table 2. By the time of the survey, 81 percent of unmarried women and 86 percent of unmarried men had had sex, demonstrating the relatively high levels of premarital sex among men and women.

Table 3 describes key transitions for both men and women from the age of ten until the age of first sex or the time of Sex dating Kisumu survey.

Thirty-five percent of women and 26 percent of men moved to Kisumu, a local hub for internal migration, during this observation period. Although only about 10 percent of our respondents were orphaned by age ten, this proportion eventually rose to 33 percent for women and 29 percent for men.

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By the age of ten, only 6 percent of girls and 5 percent of boys were not in school. By the end of the observation period, however, half of the women 51 percent and almost one-third of the men 30 percent were Sex dating Kisumu longer in any type of school. More than half of the respondents who were no longer in school did not complete secondary school, and of those still in school, roughly half fell behind by the time they became sexually active.

Reasons for students not being on track include late entry into school, temporary absences, and grade repetition. The sharp increase after age ten suggests that the risk of falling behind continued well into secondary school. For women, the effects of Sex dating Kisumu school enrollment and school performance on the timing of sexual debut were very strong.

Women who were both in school and on track were the least likely to become sexually active, whereas women who had dropped out Sex dating Kisumu school were the most likely to initiate sexual activity. Interestingly, even among women who were no longer in school, those who had dropped out were significantly more likely to become sexually active than those who Sex dating Kisumu finished secondary school.

After controlling for educational status Model 2we find very little effect of orphanhood status, earning income, migration, or religion on the timing of sexual debut among women. Luo women, however, appear to initiate sexual activity Sex dating Kisumu slightly younger ages than Luhya women, and women from poorer households tend to become sexually active earlier than those Sex dating Kisumu in richer households.

Moreover, when we lag our measures of education by six months, we find no notable differences Appendix Table A2. Percentage distribution of women Sex dating Kisumu men experiencing sexual debut, by sociodemographic characteristics and educational status, at age10 and at end of observation period, Kisumu, Kenya, Piecewise exponential survival analyses of hazard ratios of sexual debut, Kisumu, Kenya, Among men, the most striking finding is the lack of relationship between school enrollment or performance and the timing of sexual debut.

Poorer men and men who are maternal orphans initiate sex at slightly younger ages in Kisumu. Finally, as with women, no evidence exists of biased reporting detected by our measures of current age or in our models with lagged variables.

Life-history calendars, particularly those that record information in monthly intervals, can significantly improve our ability to identify the temporal order of events and enhance our understanding of the process of adolescent transitions. Nonetheless, our life-history data suffer from four important limitations: recall bias, social desirability bias, omitted variable bias, and limited period of observation. Although all retrospective data suffer from recall bias, calendars have been found to greatly enhance recall by paralleling the structure of autobiographical memory and by using highly salient events Sex dating Kisumu improve the reported timing and order of other transitions Belli Thus, memorable personal events, such as when respondents moved, lost a parent, or had their first child, as well as memorable public events, such as the presidential election of Mwai Kibaki, the US embassy bombing, Sex dating Kisumu major sporting championships, are typically recorded first and help Sex dating Kisumu other events.

Moreover, as respondents report their educational or sexual histories, they recall them in the context of their broader lives, including where they lived, whether they were working, their grade and type of schooling, and who they were dating, thus creating a more fluid narrative of their life histories.

By placing important life events in clear juxtaposition to one another, the calendar facilitates recall and also allows for the immediate recognition of inconsistencies. For example, if a respondent initially reports ending her relationship with her first partner two years ago but knows that she broke up with her partner when she moved to Kisumu three years ago, she can adjust her calendar dates during the interview process.

To the extent that recall errors are random, they would increase our standard errors and reduce the likelihood of significant findings. Systematic or deliberate recall errors, however, could bias our findings. Deliberate misreporting is more problematic.

Some respondents may deliberately revise their life histories to conform to social norms or personal ideals, thus introducing social desirability bias into our findings. Girls may, for example, systematically move their date of sexual debut until after they have left school.

The social norms regarding the timing of sex with respect Sex dating Kisumu schooling, however, are much weaker than the norms regarding timing with respect to marriage. Moreover, previous analyses of these data have shown that, compared with a more standard survey questionnaire, the calendar improved the reporting of most sexual behaviors and minimized social desirability bias Luke, Clark, and Zulu Although our life-history calendar captures a wide range of time-varying factors, it omits several variables.

The omission of retrospective measures of household wealth before or at the time of the transitions is of concern because it may produce substantial endogeneity. For example, household poverty may lead a young woman to both drop out of school and become sexually active at a young age. Other important unobserved characteristics such as scholarly aptitude, family structures, social skills, romantic proclivities, and ambition are omitted in our own study and in most other surveys.

Finally, we note that our analysis of school completion is limited to ages 14—24, when dating, sex, pregnancy, and marital aspirations have the greatest effect on schooling. These factors are likely Sex dating Kisumu be less important at younger ages, especially at ages younger than ten.

Completion of primary school Sex dating Kisumu Kenya, particularly in urban Kenya, has increased dramatically, and dropout rates now peak in secondary school. In our sample, only 8 percent had permanently left Sex dating Kisumu by the age of 14, and among those still in school at age 14, more than one-third of the boys and nearly Sex dating Kisumu the girls failed to complete secondary school. Sex dating Kisumu study sheds light on the complex relationships between dating, sexual debut, and schooling among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.

In particular, because events are recorded in our data on a monthly basis, our study achieves greater precision in the sequencing of events Sex dating Kisumu is generally possible Sex dating Kisumu cross-sectional and even most longitudinal studies, where key events are measured in years.

We find, for example, that nearly one-third of respondents become sexually active within one year of leaving school. By examining the influence of sexual activity on schooling and the affect of schooling on sexual debut separately for men and women, we highlight how differently these transitions unfold.

For young women, dating leads to a cascade Sex dating Kisumu that ultimately puts their academic careers in jeopardy. We extend the findings Sex dating Kisumu these previous studies by showing that as the number of sexual partners increases, the likelihood that a young woman will graduate from secondary school decreases. Moreover, we show that the Sex dating Kisumu between sexual activity and schooling primarily operates through the increased risk of both pregnancy and developing marital aspirations.

Our finding that young women who have found a partner whom they wish to marry are significantly more likely to drop out of school is particularly interesting because estimates of the effects of marital Sex dating Kisumu on schooling are relatively rare, despite widespread assertions that many adolescent girls drop out of school to marry. Additional analyses show that girls who have dropped out of school before completing secondary education are the most likely to become sexually active.

Moreover, consistent with Sex dating Kisumu research by Grant and Hallman in South Africa, we find that girls who are already behind in school are more likely to engage in sexual activity, suggesting that some girls may be deliberately choosing pathways leading to pregnancy and marriage when they are faltering in the educational system. In short, for young women the transitions to becoming a mother and wife continue to conflict with the goal of finishing secondary Sex dating Kisumu.

These findings are consistent with the limited previous research on Sex dating Kisumu relationship between schooling and sexual debut among young men Biddlecom et al. This is an important finding because it suggests a conflict between men taking responsibility for their offspring and their educational pursuits. In contrast, wanting to marry a partner has no negative effect on schooling for men and, in fact, might provide a slight incentive for remaining in school, although the result is not significant.

For men, job opportunities, rather than sexual and marital factors, pose the greatest incentive to leave school early. Similar to our findings for girls, boys who have earned an income are significantly more likely to Sex dating Kisumu secondary school.

These findings Sex dating Kisumu important policy implications for Kenya, which is seeking to achieve universal secondary education and close the gender gap. Clearly, Sex dating Kisumu transitions into sexual activity, marriage, parenthood, and employment are not the only factors that influence the rate of secondary school completion. Economic factors play a critical role, as evidenced by the strong negative effects of household poverty and orphanhood on remaining in school.

Moreover, structural factors such as the availability and quality of government-funded secondary schools and the level of associated school fees and exam requirements are likely to have a big impact.

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Nonetheless, in the midst of rapid changes in both the timing and order of key transitions to adulthood, assessing when transitions are complementary and when they are conflicting is useful. Completing Sex dating Kisumu school may be complementary, and thereby may increase the success of other transitions, partly by delaying them. For example, finishing secondary school before making the Sex dating Kisumu into sexual activity, marriage, parenthood, or employment could have numerous benefits such as lowering the risk of HIV Hargreaves et al.

Our Sex dating Kisumu that girls who stay in school and are on track are less likely to become sexually active suggest that improvements in the quality and availability of secondary schools could help delay some of these transitions for girls.

One study in South Africa, however, found that boys and girls who performed better on standardized exams were less likely to become sexually active, suggesting that school enrollment and school performance may matter Marteleto, Lam, and Ranchhod ; Lam, Marteleto, and Ranchhod

Obtaining a secondary degree even after making some of these transitions, Sex dating Kisumu, is still likely to bestow important advantages. Thus, policies that make these transitions more compatible are needed. Many countries, such as Botswana, previously enhanced the conflict between motherhood and schooling by Sex dating Kisumu a one-year expulsion of Sex dating Kisumu schoolgirls or compelling young mothers to enroll in different schools Meekers and Ahmed and More recently, South Africa and other countries have adopted policies that both enable pregnant schoolgirls to stay in school and encourage their return after the birth of their child Madhavan and Thomas The success of these programs is evidenced by a return rate of up to 50 percent of young mothers in South Africa Marteleto, Lam, and Ranchhod For more than a decade, researchers have made appeals for similar policies in Kenya Meekers, Gage, and Zhan and the policy community is beginning to respond by encouraging adolescent girls to stay in school or return if they have left.

No countries, to our knowledge, have policies designed to keep young fathers in school and simultaneously encourage paternal recognition and responsibility. Similarly, virtually no progress has been made in making marriage and schooling Sex dating Kisumu compatible.

Although roughly one-third of both boys and girls in our sample had found a partner they wished to marry, Sex dating Kisumu of our married respondents remained in school after marriage.

The sharp increase after age ten suggests that the risk of falling behind continued well into secondary school.

Surprisingly little attention has been given to finding ways to make secondary schooling more compatible with earning an income. Whereas a surge in the number of vocational schools has helped ease the transition from school to gainful employment, little recognition of the need to earn an income while in school has taken place, even Sex dating Kisumu many adolescents are expected to contribute to their educational expenses.

As a result, many working students find that they must either leave school temporarily or fall behind in their studies, resulting in the need to repeat a grade. For both girls and boys, we find that earning an income is negatively associated with remaining in school. If Sex dating Kisumu Kenyan men and women perceive the decision to remain in school as complementary to their life goals, they may seek to delay these other transitions. The economic and social reality of low school quality, high school fees, floundering labor markets for skilled workers, and a potential marriage-market penalty for well-educated women, however, provides strong disincentive to stay in school.

Thus, one of the key Sex dating Kisumu to increasing the rates of secondary school completion will be to find ways of both encouraging the delay of some transitions to adulthood and at the same time accommodating students who have already become parents, spouses, and wage earners. The authors wish to thank Caroline Kabiru, Nancy Luke, Eliya Zulu, and other members of the research team for Sex dating Kisumu this study. This article has also benefited from insightful comments from Cynthia Lloyd and Leticia Marteleto.

Piecewise exponential survival analyses of dropping out of school with six-month lagged measures, Kisumu, Kenya. Note: All lagged measures are lagged by six months. Piecewise exponential survival analyses of sexual debut with Sex dating Kisumu lagged measures, Kisumu, Kenya, The term may be a bit of a misnomer in this context, however, to the extent that it implies a series of formal outings to public places restaurants, movies, public events.

As in many contexts, the behaviors that define different types of relationships are constantly evolving. National Center for Sex dating Kisumu InformationU. Stud Fam Plann. Author manuscript; available in PMC Sep 1. Author information Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Shelley Clark: ac. Copyright notice. The publisher's final edited version of this article is available at Stud Fam Plann.

See other articles in PMC that cite the published article. Abstract Completion of secondary school is increasingly viewed as a desirable life goal for young men and women in urban Kenya. Impact of Sex, Pregnancy, and Marriage on Schooling Among studies examining whether early transitions into sexual activity, pregnancy, or marriage impede prospects of school completion for both boys and girls, few have addressed the issue of dating per se.

Influence of Schooling on Sexual Debut and Pregnancy Just as sexual activity and pregnancy may increase the likelihood of school dropout, remaining in Sex dating Kisumu may provide an incentive to delay sexual initiation and avoid pregnancy.

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